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Multi Baggers

Ventura Securities

5.30 AM Jan 1st 1970

Lakshmi Vilas

BSE ID : 534690     NSE ID : LAKSHVILAS

RECOMMENDED PRICE 96.85

PEAK FROM RECO 194.70 101.03%

CURRENT PRICE 7.65 Resource id #18

Lakshmi Vilas Bank has a wide presence through a network of 1070 customer outlets, which include 400 branches and approx. 700 ATMs. We initiate coverage on LVB with a BUY and a target price of Rs 154.

Lakshmi Vilas Bank

Lakshmi Vilas Bank (LVB) is one of the oldest private sector banks in the country. Based in Tamilnadu, it has a strong regional base in southern India. The bank has business book of Rs 33,705 crore as on Q3FY15. During the economic downturn in FY11-14, bank's asset quality deteriorated substantially as its corporate portfolio (more than 7.5 percent of its lending book) took a significant hit due to NPAs which impacted profitability drastically.

However, with the change in focus towards high yielding Retail and MSME lending along with significant recovery and upgradation of NPAs to standard asset category we expect a revival in the bank's return ratio over the forecasted period. Further, we expect margin expansion to be driven by increase in low cost CASA deposits.

The following factors drive our optimism on the company's prospects:

Advances are expected to grow at a robust three year CAGR of 18 percent to Rs 21,261 crore in FY17E on the back of a thrust on Retail and MSME banking. Further, the bank is in a good position to leverage its rural and sub urban presence to fund the next leg of growth. Its advance mix is expected to shift in favour of Retail and MSME lending by 200 bps to 23 percent.

Deposits are expected to grow at a CAGR of 16 percent to Rs 29,225 crore in FY17E, fuelled by the 475 bps increase in low cost CASA deposits to 19 percent over the forecasted period. Growth in Savings Accounts is expected to be much higher at a CAGR of ~23 percent vis-a-vis the 14 percent CAGR growth in Term Deposits.

Owing to the increasing low cost CASA base along with the improved share of high yielding retail and MSME in the bank's lending profile, we expect the PAT to grow at a 3 year CAGR of 54 percent to Rs 222 crore. NII is expected to register a CAGR of ~21 percent to Rs 853 crore during the same period. NIMs are expected to expand marginally by 20 bps to 3.08 percent by FY17E.

The Bank is continuously striving towards improving its asset quality which had peaked in FY14 (GNPA 4.2 percent). Commendably, its GNPA has fallen to 3.4 percent in Q3FY15. Going forward, we expect Gross and Net NPAs to improve significantly to 2 percent and 1.5 percent, respectively, over the forecasted period. This is significantly more conservative than the bank management's own estimates of 1.5 percent and 1 percent of Gross and Net NPAs, respectively.

We initiate coverage on Lakshmi Vilas Bank with a BUY and a target price of Rs 154. We have valued Lakshmi Vilas Bank based on our target Price to Adjusted Book Value of 1x on FY17E book value. Our target price implies an upside of 58 percent from the CMP. At the CMP of Rs 96.85, the bank is trading at 0.8x FY15, 0.7x FY16 and 0.6x FY17 of its Adj. P/BV.

For full details, Click on the attachment.

Disclosures & Disclaimer: Ventura Securities Limited (VSL) is a SEBI registered intermediary offering broking, depository and portfolio management services to clients. VSL is member of BSE, NSE and MCX-SX. VSL is a depository participant of NSDL. VSL states that no disciplinary action whatsoever has been taken by SEBI against it in last five years except administrative warning issued in connection with technical and venial lapses observed while inspection of books of accounts and records. Ventura Commodities Limited, Ventura Guaranty Limited, Ventura Insurance Brokers Limited and Ventura Allied Services Private Limited are associates of VSL. Research Analyst (RA) involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL disclose that neither RA nor VSL nor its associates (i) have any financial interest in the company which is the subject matter of this research report (ii) holds ownership of one percent or more in the securities of subject company (iii) have any material conflict of interest at the time of publication of this research report (iv) have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months (v) have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in past twelve months (vi) have received any compensation for investment banking merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months (vii) have received any compensation for product or services from the subject company in the past twelve months (viii) have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. RA involved in the preparation of this research report discloses that he / she has not served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. RA involved in the preparation of this research report and VSL discloses that they have not been engaged in the market making activity for the subject company. Our sales people, dealers, traders and other professionals may provide oral or written market commentary or trading strategies to our clients that reflect opinions that are contrary to the opinions expressed herein. We may have earlier issued or may issue in future reports on the companies covered herein with recommendations/ information inconsistent or different those made in this report. In reviewing this document, you should be aware that any or all of the foregoing, among other things, may give rise to or potential conflicts of interest. 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Similarly, this document does not have regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation/circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person who may receive this document. The securities discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors. The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. Persons who may receive this document should consider and independently evaluate whether it is suitable for his/ her/their particular circumstances and, if necessary, seek professional/financial advice. And such person shall be responsible for conducting his/her/their own investigation and analysis of the information contained or referred to in this document and of evaluating the merits and risks involved in the securities forming the subject matter of this document. The projections and forecasts described in this report were based upon a number of estimates and assumptions and are inherently subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Projections and forecasts are necessarily speculative in nature, and it can be expected that one or more of the estimates on which the projections and forecasts were based will not materialize or will vary significantly from actual results, and such variances will likely increase over time. All projections and forecasts described in this report have been prepared solely by the authors of this report independently of the Company. These projections and forecasts were not prepared with a view toward compliance with published guidelines or generally accepted accounting principles. No independent accountants have expressed an opinion or any other form of assurance on these projections or forecasts. You should not regard the inclusion of the projections and forecasts described herein as a representation or warranty by VSL, its associates, the authors of this report or any other person that these projections or forecasts or their underlying assumptions will be achieved. For these reasons, you should only consider the projections and forecasts described in this report after carefully evaluating all of the information in this report, including the assumptions underlying such projections and forecasts. The price and value of the investments referred to in this document/material and the income from them may go down as well as up, and investors may realize losses on any investments. Past performance is not a guide for future performance. Future returns are not guaranteed and a loss of original capital may occur. Actual results may differ materially from those set forth in projections. Forward-looking statements are not predictions and may be subject to change without notice. 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The opinions and projections expressed herein are entirely those of the author and are given as part of the normal research activity of VSL and are given as of this date and are subject to change without notice. Any opinion estimate or projection herein constitutes a view as of the date of this report and there can be no assurance that future results or events will be consistent with any such opinions, estimate or projection. This document has not been prepared by or in conjunction with or on behalf of or at the instigation of, or by arrangement with the company or any of its directors or any other person. Information in this document must not be relied upon as having been authorized or approved by the company or its directors or any other person. Any opinions and projections contained herein are entirely those of the authors. 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