Market Outlook

Support comes in at the 10490, 10380 10250 while resistance comes in at the 10550, 10665, 10783 levels.

The Nifty has more or less moved on expected lines to appreciate further but stiff resistance at higher levels has seen sustainability at higher levels rather elusive; it has slipped down to close below the 10600 level again thereby getting the situation back to square one. Maximum call open interest comes in at 10700 followed by 11000 while maximum put open interest comes in at 10000 followed by 10500 indicating a rather big range (despite the fact that we are now more than four weeks in the new series) but the situation remains fluid with movements expected on either side. Nifty has seen some significant reduction in open interest during the week to end at 2.28 cr and has seen shedding of nearly 2.2% on the last trading session of the week; the Bank Nifty open interest has seen some sharp reduction (it stands at 11.95 lakh) compared to the last week; has seen some major reduction in open interest (28.15%) on the last trading session of the week. The Vix has spent almost the entire week above the 19.15 level (in terms of closing) except that it ended at 19.16 (cooled off from an intra week high of 20.10) which has resulted in a weaker market. The Nifty hasnt been able to sustain above the 10783 level but support at the 10450-10490 levels should cushion the downside while the derivatives expiry could lead to further volatility and random movements. A late recovery cannot be ruled out while an influx of data points like currency, crude could hold sway over the sentiment. A cautious and nimble approach is suggested. Support comes in at the 10490, 10380 10250 while resistance comes in at the 10550, 10665, 10783 levels.